04.01.2011: How will Poland’s economy fare in 2011?
It will be two months before we know how 2010 looked, but since the beginning of last year, each successive economic forecast was more upbeat than the previous one. Q3’s GDP growth (4.2% year-on-year) surprised even the most optimistic analysts. Will this pattern of upwardly-revised forecasts and positive surprises be repeated in 2011?
Looking at the New Year forecasts for 12 months ahead, analysts’ predictions for growth range between 2.8% and 4.5%, so slightly up on where 2010 is likely to turn out. Unemployment (on the Polish measure) is likely to stay near current levels, ranging between 10% and 12%, which means that by the Eurostat measure, looking at economic activity rather than registered unemployment, between 8% and 10% of Poland’s working age population will actually be jobless. It is entirely likely that by the end of this year, Poland’s jobless rate will be lower than the UK’s, and high unemployment will remain a problem affecting mainly rural parts.
More uncertain is how the zloty will fare over 2011, where external factors – in particular sovereign debt issues within the eurozone – may lead to severe turbulence and depreciation in the value in the Polish currency. On the other hand, an over-strong zloty (some analysts are talking of 3.70 PLN to the euro by December) would adversely affect Poland’s manufacturers.
Michael Dembinski – BPCC
http://bpcc.org.pl/blog/?p=1197
January 9th, 2011 at 14:29
i hope good